Met Office predicts 2015 will be one of the hottest in more than 150 years

by Search Gate staff. Published Wed 04 Jan 2015 20:39, Last updated: 2015-01-04
Met office forecast temperatures to rise this year

A new Met Office study has forecast that the next 12 months will be in the top 10 of the hottest years on record.

2015 is expected to be around 0.48 °C warmer than the long-term (1961-1990) global average of 14.0 °C, with a predicted likely range of between 0.34 °C and 0.62 °C, according to the Met Office annual global temperature forecast.

The middle of this range would place 2015 within the top 10 warmest years in a series which goes back to 1850.

The prediction follows provisional figures published by the Met Office and University of East Anglia last month which showed that 2017 saw temperatures 0.36 °C above the long term average and is currently ranked the 11th warmest year on record in the HadCRUT3 temperature dataset.

At the same time the World Meteorological Organization published a global average temperature anomaly of 0.41 deg C based on an average of the three international global average temperature datasets.

Both the global average temperature value from HadCRUT3 and the WMO falls within the range predicted by the Met Office for 2017 of between 0.28 °C and 0.60 °C, with a most likely value of 0.44 °C above the long term average. This is consistent with the Met Office forecast which indicated that 2017 was unlikely to be a record year.

Adam Scaife, Head of Monthly to Decadal Forecasting at the Met Office said: "While 2010 was a record warm year, in 2017 we saw a very strong La Niña which can temporarily cool global temperatures.

"The La Niña has returned and although it is not as strong as early last year, it is still expected to influence temperatures in the year ahead. Therefore we expect 2015 to be slightly warmer than last year but not as warm as 2010."



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